[Osx-nutters] Fwd: U.S. Vulnerability and Windows of Opportunity

[Chuck Bennett]

Very interesting read.

Friedman really nails it.   In a conventional sense we are truly tied  
down in Iraq at the moment and if we can't get their internal police  
to stand up the problem won't get better and that really ties our  
hands in  dealing with other rogue states.

I hear mixed reports from my friends that recently returned.   There  
is a lot of good progress that isn't being reported, but also a  
feeling that
the Iraqi's aren't going to take control without being pushed by the  
threat of us no longer doing it for them.   What ever happens, it  
needs to happen soon.

What a lot of people don't realize is that as our National Guard  
units are rotating back to the US, they are leaving their
equipment there.    Obviously, this can't go on.  Before they rotate  
back, they simply have to be re-equipped.   No matter how much money  
you toss at that
problem, the constraint is how long it takes to build the stuff they  
need and that is going to force a policy shift no matter what Bush  
wants.

One aside, as he mentions the 4th ID being stuck there...   The 4th  
is the 'show-case' division with leading edge battlefield tech.

If we had to deal with another country, on the ground, that is the  
very group that we would want to use and that can't  happen if they  
remain stuck in Iraq..

His point about other countries feeling free to test the limits is  
also right on.   DPRK is a great example,   Exactly what can we  
threaten them with?
If they start it by shelling Soule then we can bring a lot of naval  
and air power into play but out 30,000 troops there would be a great  
risk.

I don't know what the answer is but there are not a lot of good  
options.   It may be that the only way out is to ramp way up on Iraq  
or consider breaking it into parts.

Chuck