[Osx-nutters] Denial

[Chris Gehlker]

On Aug 15, 2007, at 9:28 AM, Stefano Mori wrote:

> The point is, how can you demonstrate empirically that the method you
> have used to make your forecast is the best one to use? Some Q factor
> *may* stop the sun from rising tomorrow, but we have one point eight
> million empirical verifications of the forecast having worked
> already. That's a reason we trust that the forecast will work again
> tomorrow.

Just adding observations without building a model and formulating a  
testable hypothesis adds nothing to our understanding. The  sun will  
*not* come up  tomorrow in any solar system save this one and not  
even on most planets in this one. It won't come up tomorrow at the  
south pole.  Because I have a model, I know many interesting things  
about the sun. It takes many  fewer than eight million observations  
to verify my model.

--
The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a  
proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and  
oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us.
-Paul Valery, poet and philosopher (1871-1945)