[Osx-nutters] Denial

[David Cake]

At 12:55 AM +0100 17/8/07, Stefano Mori wrote:
>On 2007-Aug-17, at 00:45, mmalc crawford wrote:
>
>>>  People just underestimate how difficult it is to predict the future
>>>  behavior of complex systems.
>>>
>>  Sorry, but that's just obnoxiously condescending.  This is simply not
>>  the case.
>
>Then what do you think is a good method to predict the future of a
>complex system?

	I think he was saying that its condescending to assume the 
rest of us just underestimate it.

	 The term complex systems in the scientific sense (I'm even 
published in the proceedings of a Complex Systems conference, back in 
1992) means a system that is between rigidly predictable, and pure 
random stochastic systems - ones whose behaviour is predictable in 
some ways, but not others. Strange attractors, chaotic behaviour, all 
that sort of stuff.
	And we, of course predict some aspects of the long term 
behaviour of complex systems regularly. The weather is a complex 
system, and so its impossible for me to predict whether it will rain 
on this day next year. I can give you a pretty good probability that 
it will, based on past behaviour, though.