[Osx-nutters] Denial

[Stefano Mori]

On 2007-Aug-17, at 01:26, David Cake wrote:

>> Then what do you think is a good method to predict the future of a
>> complex system?
>
> 	I think he was saying that its condescending to assume the
> rest of us just underestimate it.
>
> 	 The term complex systems in the scientific sense (I'm even
> published in the proceedings of a Complex Systems conference, back in
> 1992) means a system that is between rigidly predictable, and pure
> random stochastic systems - ones whose behaviour is predictable in
> some ways, but not others. Strange attractors, chaotic behaviour, all
> that sort of stuff.
> 	And we, of course predict some aspects of the long term
> behaviour of complex systems regularly. The weather is a complex
> system, and so its impossible for me to predict whether it will rain
> on this day next year. I can give you a pretty good probability that
> it will, based on past behaviour, though.


So some aspects of the behavior of more complex systems may be  
predictable in some ways but not others.

What's a good method for working out which behaviors are predictable,  
and which methods are good methods for predicting those behaviors?

Stefano