[Osx-nutters] good news from Iraq for a change

[Chuck Bennett]

Looks like not only is the surge working but that the villagers are  
finally figuring out that AQI needs to go.

If AQI can't set up shop in town, they are screwed.

<http://patdollard.com/2007/08/24/60-al-qaeda-fail-miserably-in- 
another-spectacular-village-attack/>


"Previously, Al Qaeda loved to attack Shiites and Shiite icons like  
the Golden Mosque, because such attacks could create the impression  
of a genuine civil war, which the western press would lap up. And,  
such attacks also contained the promise of igniting a true civil war,  
although that never actually happened. Not only was the average Iraqi  
wise to Al Qaeda’s game, but the presence of U.S. forces and their  
control of all substantial routes of transport make a true civil war  
literally physically impossible."

Yep.   Not to say I told you so, but I think I mentioned on this list  
more than a year ago that Iraq simply could not fall into civil war  
in it's current configuration.   As long as we deny AQI
a "homeland" safe area for AQI to re-supply from and encourage the  
people in the villages to turn on AQI, denying them safe havens  
inside towns, any attempts by AQI to provoke a civil war
will backfire on them.

I think that most of our saber rattling with Iran isn't about  
actually attacking them, but keeping them on notice that we won't  
tolerate their helping AQI.   If AQI can't count on Iran, the are  
well and truly screwed.

It is about time that we finally figured out how to implement COIN[1]  
warfare in Iraq.

Patreus just might pull this off.    If so, we can all (left or  
right) call it a win and get the hell out in a year or so.

As always, the bad guys get a say in this, so I imagine that there  
are bad days to come as well but  it gets easier each day for us and  
harder each day for AQI
and that is a good thing.

=c=

[1]  COunter INsurgency