[Osx-nutters] good news from Iraq for a change

[Patrick Coskren]

On Aug 24, 2007, at 10:29 AM, Chuck Bennett wrote:

> Looks like not only is the surge working

Based on what evidence?

> but that the villagers are
> finally figuring out that AQI needs to go.

This is true, of at least some "villagers", anyway, and it is good  
news as far as it goes.  Unfortunately, AQI isn't the real problem  
any more, if in fact it ever was.  The Sunni and Shiite death squads  
and militias, largely supported by rival government factions, are the  
problem now.  I suspect the underlying issue is that the local  
militias are now powerful and well-organized enough that they see AQI  
as a rival for power, so they're shutting them down.  An important  
thing to keep in mind is that for the last couple of months, the  
Pentagon has started calling all local militias "Al Qaeda" whether  
they are or not.

The rest of this guy's analysis is pretty dumb; it sounds like he's  
thinking a "civil war" only consists of large, organized military  
actions like Sherman's March.  And he can't even spell Petraeus right.

-Patrick

> If AQI can't set up shop in town, they are screwed.
>
> <http://patdollard.com/2007/08/24/60-al-qaeda-fail-miserably-in-
> another-spectacular-village-attack/>
>
>
> "Previously, Al Qaeda loved to attack Shiites and Shiite icons like
> the Golden Mosque, because such attacks could create the impression
> of a genuine civil war, which the western press would lap up. And,
> such attacks also contained the promise of igniting a true civil war,
> although that never actually happened. Not only was the average Iraqi
> wise to Al Qaeda’s game, but the presence of U.S. forces and their
> control of all substantial routes of transport make a true civil war
> literally physically impossible."
>
> Yep.   Not to say I told you so, but I think I mentioned on this list
> more than a year ago that Iraq simply could not fall into civil war
> in it's current configuration.   As long as we deny AQI
> a "homeland" safe area for AQI to re-supply from and encourage the
> people in the villages to turn on AQI, denying them safe havens
> inside towns, any attempts by AQI to provoke a civil war
> will backfire on them.
>
> I think that most of our saber rattling with Iran isn't about
> actually attacking them, but keeping them on notice that we won't
> tolerate their helping AQI.   If AQI can't count on Iran, the are
> well and truly screwed.
>
> It is about time that we finally figured out how to implement COIN[1]
> warfare in Iraq.
>
> Patreus just might pull this off.    If so, we can all (left or
> right) call it a win and get the hell out in a year or so.
>
> As always, the bad guys get a say in this, so I imagine that there
> are bad days to come as well but  it gets easier each day for us and
> harder each day for AQI
> and that is a good thing.
>
> =c=
>
> [1]  COunter INsurgency
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