[Osx-nutters] good news from Iraq for a change

[Kevin Callahan]

this war was such a brilliant idea ...

<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/24/washington/24policy.html? 
_r=1&oref=slogin>

The assessment, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, casts  
strong doubts on the viability of the Bush administration strategy in  
Iraq. It gives a dim prognosis on the likelihood that Iraqi  
politicians can heal deep sectarian rifts before next spring, when  
American military commanders have said that a crunch on available  
troops will require reducing the United States’ presence in Iraq.

But the report also implicitly criticizes proposals offered by  
Democrats, including several presidential candidates, who have called  
for a withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq by next year and  
for a major shift in the American approach, from manpower-intensive  
counterinsurgency operations to lower-profile efforts aimed at  
supporting Iraqi troops and carrying out quick-strike  
counterterrorism raids.

Such a shift, the report says, would “erode security gains achieved  
thus far” and could return Iraq to a downward spiral of sectarian  
violence.

After a summer of rancorous debate over the future of America’s  
mission in Iraq, the intelligence report is the most prominent and  
authoritative assessment to date of what the administration calls a  
surge strategy.

The report, which represents the consensus view of America’s 16  
intelligence agencies, suggests that policy makers face a dilemma.  
While the current strategy in Iraq has produced “measurable but  
uneven improvements” in security, it says, the approach has done  
little to bridge sectarian divides in Iraq. The report also says that  
pulling American troops out of Iraq would most likely make things far  
worse.

The report says that the influx of American troops in Iraq has  
achieved some successes in lowering sectarian violence, but concludes  
that Iraqi leaders “remain unable to govern effectively” and that the  
government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki “will become more  
precarious over the next 6 to 12 months” as rival factions led by Mr.  
Maliki’s fellow Shiites vie for power


The assessment concludes that there is little reason to expect that  
Iraqi politicians will achieve significant gains before spring, when  
American commanders say they will have to begin to cut troop levels  
in Iraq, now at more than 160,000, to ease the burden on military  
personnel.


The intelligence assessment predicts that Iraq’s neighbors,  
especially Iran and Syria, will step up efforts to exert influence  
over Iraq’s feuding factions. Intelligence officials on Thursday said  
that Sunni nations in the Middle East, most prominently Saudi Arabia,  
were monitoring events in Iraq, possibly with an eye toward  
intervening on behalf of Sunnis in the country.


On Aug 24, 2007, at 7:29 AM, Chuck Bennett wrote:

> Looks like not only is the surge working but that the villagers are
> finally figuring out that AQI needs to go.
>
> If AQI can't set up shop in town, they are screwed.
>
> <http://patdollard.com/2007/08/24/60-al-qaeda-fail-miserably-in-
> another-spectacular-village-attack/>
>
>
> "Previously, Al Qaeda loved to attack Shiites and Shiite icons like
> the Golden Mosque, because such attacks could create the impression
> of a genuine civil war, which the western press would lap up. And,
> such attacks also contained the promise of igniting a true civil war,
> although that never actually happened. Not only was the average Iraqi
> wise to Al Qaeda’s game, but the presence of U.S. forces and their
> control of all substantial routes of transport make a true civil war
> literally physically impossible."
>
> Yep.   Not to say I told you so, but I think I mentioned on this list
> more than a year ago that Iraq simply could not fall into civil war
> in it's current configuration.   As long as we deny AQI
> a "homeland" safe area for AQI to re-supply from and encourage the
> people in the villages to turn on AQI, denying them safe havens
> inside towns, any attempts by AQI to provoke a civil war
> will backfire on them.
>
> I think that most of our saber rattling with Iran isn't about
> actually attacking them, but keeping them on notice that we won't
> tolerate their helping AQI.   If AQI can't count on Iran, the are
> well and truly screwed.
>
> It is about time that we finally figured out how to implement COIN[1]
> warfare in Iraq.
>
> Patreus just might pull this off.    If so, we can all (left or
> right) call it a win and get the hell out in a year or so.
>
> As always, the bad guys get a say in this, so I imagine that there
> are bad days to come as well but  it gets easier each day for us and
> harder each day for AQI
> and that is a good thing.
>
> =c=
>
> [1]  COunter INsurgency
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