[Osx-nutters] The separation of church and state.

[LuKreme]

On 4-Dec-2007, at 12:00, Mark Smith wrote:
> We could consider the Monty Hall Problem as a very simple example of  
> this issue.


Monty Hall is the host of a game show called "Let's Make a Deal" (or  
was, I suppose, i doubt it's still on).

The final portion of each show had two contestants choose curtains.   
After the first contestant had revealed what they'd won, the second  
had a chance to change their mind to the third curtain.

One curtain had a big prize, the other two had... I forget what they  
called them, but non-prizes.

If you are contestant #2 and Contestant #1 gets a boobie prize, should  
you change your choice, or does it not matter?

Most people, and many mathematicians and scientists, claim that the  
chances of you winning are 50-50 because previous events can't  
influence the outcome, right?

They're wrong.  You should switch as that gives you a much better  
chance of winning

That's why statistics and probability sucks.

-- 
Generalizations are always inaccurate.  -Mugsy