[Osx-nutters] The separation of church and state.

[Jared Earle]

On Dec 4, 2007 7:19 PM, LuKreme <kremels at kreme.com> wrote:
> Most people, and many mathematicians and scientists, claim that the
> chances of you winning are 50-50 because previous events can't
> influence the outcome, right?
>
> They're wrong.  You should switch as that gives you a much better
> chance of winning
>
> That's why statistics and probability sucks.

...but it's all probability. The reason people get it so wrong is
because they don't understand probability. Here's the simplest
explanation of the Monty Hall Car/Goats problem:

door - two doors
(1/3)     (2/3)

We can all agree with that simplest basic probability. You have a one
in three chance of getting the good prize when you guess cold.

Then, if you remove one of the doors on the right side by exposing it
as not-a-car, the remaining door has to pick up that two-in-three
probability.

door - door
(1/3)  (2/3)

This problem is only counter-intuitive because someone already knows
the outcome and acts on it.

-- 
      Jared Earle :: There is no SPORK
 jearle at gmail.com :: http://www.23x.net
     The Spodcast :: http://spodcast.org