[Osx-nutters] Interesting Article On Peak Oilers

[David Cake]

At 12:01 PM -0800 25/2/07, Henry McGilton wrote:
>     <http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=021307A>
>

	The interesting thing to me about the peak oilers is not 
their predictions about peak oil itself. Obviously, oil is a 
non-renewable resource, their must come a point at which it begins to 
run out. Exactly how many years they are off by in their predictions 
is important, but not all that interesting (I mean, its probably both 
if you are in the oil industry, but I'm not). Some people argue its 
happened, some argue its happening soon, some argue its a fair way 
off.
	What is interesting is the way they predict that peak oil 
will swiftly lead to a massive collapse of civilisation, and a return 
to a very different way of life. Its fairly obviously massively 
alarmist. I've read explanations about how it is all supposed to 
happen from peak-oil hard cores, and it seems obvious to me that 
there is a big chain of 'and assuming the worst case, then x, and if 
we then assume the worst case response, then y'. Mostly, it relies on 
the idea that the global economy is in worse shape than it was in the 
1970s, and responses to rising energy prices will be more pronounced 
(despite the cause being much slower to take effect), and more 
alarmist (despite preparation for rising energy costs being rather a 
global obsession of policy making units).
	I think peak oil might happen soon, where soon is something 
like about 10 +/- 10 years from now. Or it might take longer, as many 
others argue. I know nothing, I just go on what I've read.
	But believing in peak oil seems to go hand in hand with 
economic disaster immediately following, and I don't think that at 
all. Air travel will get pricier. Petrol will get pricier. We 
currently use air transport in a way that is utterly gratuitous 
(buying produce from the other side of the world is common enough 
that most consumers/retailers don't distinguish it from local 
produce, in price or labelling, often). We can live without that. Air 
travel will get more expensive, and that will suck for people like me 
that like to travel, but the overall cost of travel (once you factor 
in accomodation, etc) probably won't rise dramatically. We have the 
internet now - a lot more business stuff will get done via video 
conferencing etc I am sure.
	I'm just fascinated by the way a lot of them seem to have a 
deep psychological desire to believe that this civilisation will come 
crashing down, and has seized on peak oil as the means by which it 
will happen.
	And cimate change is part and parcel of the same mindset. 
Whereas the reality seems to be that the Stern report has economists 
soberly contemplating significant rise in energy costs and concluding 
that, though no one will enjoy it, the global economy can take the 
hit (eventual cost is about a 3-4% GDP hit, spread out over a few 
years, but obviously concentrated on energy, so will hit some 
indusstries harder).
	Cheers
		David