[Osx-nutters] Interesting Article On Peak Oilers

[Chuck Bennett]

On Feb 26, 2007, at 11:06 AM, Kevin Callahan wrote:

>
> On Feb 25, 2007, at 8:37 PM, David Cake wrote:
>
>> At 12:01 PM -0800 25/2/07, Henry McGilton wrote:
>>>     <http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=021307A>
>>>
>>
>> 	The interesting thing to me about the peak oilers is not their  
>> predictions about peak oil itself. Obviously, oil is a non- 
>> renewable resource, their must come a point at which it begins to  
>> run out. Exactly how many years they are off by in their  
>> predictions is important, but not all that interesting (I mean,  
>> its probably both if you are in the oil industry, but I'm not).  
>> Some people argue its happened, some argue its happening soon,  
>> some argue its a fair way off.
>> 	What is interesting is the way they predict that peak oil will  
>> swiftly lead to a massive collapse of civilisation, and a return  
>> to a very different way of life.
>> Its fairly obviously massively alarmist. I've read explanations  
>> about how it is all supposed to happen from peak-oil hard cores,  
>> and it seems obvious to me that there is a big chain of 'and  
>> assuming the worst case, then x, and if we then assume the worst  
>> case response, then y'. Mostly, it relies on the idea that the  
>> global economy is in worse shape than it was in the 1970s, and  
>> responses to rising energy prices will be more pronounced (despite  
>> the cause being much slower to take effect), and more alarmist  
>> (despite preparation for rising energy costs being rather a global  
>> obsession of policy making units).
>> 	I think peak oil might happen soon, where soon is something like  
>> about 10 +/- 10 years from now. Or it might take longer, as many  
>> others argue. I know nothing, I just go on what I've read.
>> 	But believing in peak oil seems to go hand in hand with economic  
>> disaster immediately following
>
> as in this perspective
>
> <http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html? 
> id=58fc9401-92d8-47b8-b1f2-bb320676825b>>
>
>
>> , and I don't think that at all. Air travel will get pricier.  
>> Petrol will get pricier. We currently use air transport in a way  
>> that is utterly gratuitous (buying produce from the other side of  
>> the world is common enough that most consumers/retailers don't  
>> distinguish it from local produce, in price or labelling, often).  
>> We can live without that. Air travel will get more expensive, and  
>> that will suck for people like me that like to travel, but the  
>> overall cost of travel (once you factor in accomodation, etc)  
>> probably won't rise dramatically. We have the internet now - a lot  
>> more business stuff will get done via video conferencing etc I am  
>> sure.
>> 	I'm just fascinated by the way a lot of them seem to have a deep  
>> psychological desire to believe that this civilisation will come  
>> crashing down, and has seized on peak oil as the means by which it  
>> will happen.
>> 	And cimate change is part and parcel of the same mindset. Whereas  
>> the reality seems to be that the Stern report has economists  
>> soberly contemplating significant rise in energy costs and  
>> concluding that, though no one will enjoy it, the global economy  
>> can take the hit (eventual cost is about a 3-4% GDP hit, spread  
>> out over a few years, but obviously concentrated on energy, so  
>> will hit some indusstries harder).
>> 	Cheers
>> 		David


My two fundamental problems with the peak oilers are that

1:   They assume that the majority of the worlds oil supplies have  
been found and cataloged, somehow ignoring that fact that we've only
explored for oil over 3% of the earth.    We have no idea how much  
oil really exists that is not 'a proven reserve'

2:  Oil Shales, Oil Sands and a lot of the old wells are worth going  
back to when oil is $60 a barrel.  The known reserves of cheap oil  
may be declining but
there is no imminent shortage of oil.

Having said that, I'd rather we reserve our oil for making cheap  
plastic shit in China that we can buy at WallMart rather than burning  
it to power machines..

=c=